Yes, the current provinces more or less date to the Ming, at least in China Proper. And yes, if you are looking at cultural identification (as Chavonic seems to be)provincial boundaries matter a lot. One of Skinner’s points was that the economic geography of China did not line up so well with the provinces, which was not to dismiss the importance of provincial identity but to add another level to it.

P.S. To add on to your point about China being bigger than most countries, Sichuan is about the size of France and through history has had about the same population.

The Nine Nations of North America was a brilliant concept, though like this the book was too journalism heavy but history light. But to understand the United States, its important to realize how little state boundaries align with cultural and economic boundaries. Chinese provinces have very different histories and certainly align much better with economic and historical realities. Anyway this article just lumps Chinese provinces together.

It is probably helpful to try to educate Americans that China (and India) are not just countries analogous to France, Germany, Mexico, etc. China is more analogous to the Roman Empire, it has twice the population of the US and UK combined. Its amazing how many Americans I’ve met who visited China for the first time and were amazed that inland cities were actually different from Shanghai and Guangzhou! If you understand so little about a region you have no business “investing” there.